Horse Racing

A Sure Bet: Pedigree Analysis

March 12, 2010

Improve your horse race bets by adding pedigree information to your selection criteria.

Improve your luck at the horse races.

Last time, we talked about one-minute handicapping.

You can improve the effectiveness of those quick methods if you are willing to take time to add pedigree information to your selection criteria.  Pedigrees tell us what a horse should be, based on his genetics.  Some students of pedigree can overwhelm others with their knowledge of pedigree history.  As a result, some horse racing fans shy away from using pedigree selection, as it seems too complicated.  However, you control how complicated you want your analysis to be.  An hour or two of time at the beginning of a meeting can pay big dividends, both in amount of time required to handicap a race and in money returned per wagered dollar.

Pedigree handicapping starts with a visit to the AQHA racing leader page.  Note sires on the leader boards.  Look at the leaders in both numbers of winners and money won.  Consider the top-10 sires and circle their names in  your program to add to the circles already there from last month.  Note that some Quarter Horse stallions have more success with 2-year olds and others are higher on the older-horse list.  Pay attention to the sires and dam sires of all winners at your local (or favorite) track.  You will note that some sires appear more often in distances up through 350 yards and others may appear more often at 400 and 440.  The 550-yard (and 660 at Remington Park) long straightaway sprints are unique distances, and breeding is a good factor to consider in those dashes.  The same is true of hook races, whether 770 or 870 yards.

Reid is teaching a Trainers Exam Prep Class at Lone Star Park March 31 through April 2. Get more information and sign up today!

The American Quarter Horse Journal is a good resource for pedigree information.  Articles in the Q-Racing section about stakes races, as well as the results sections, provide the sire (and usually dam’s sire) of the winners and sometimes the runners-up.  This is an especially good place to get ahead of other players regarding young sires, as well as local stallions that might do particularly well at your local track.  Pay attention to races restricted to “state-breds” to learn about some perhaps lesser-known sires from your local area.

The pedigree block of your racing program (or racing form) also provides the name of each horse’s owner and breeder.  Well-known breeders are well known because they have bred horses that have had a lot of racing success.  The national leaders in each category can be found on the AQHA racing leader page.

Remember, we are spending some time now so that we can do quick one- or two-minute handicapping at the track.  Don’t get bogged down and overthink.  However you handicap, have a rule regarding whether you will bet on a race or not.  If you can’t decide between four or five or six horses, then you may want to pass that race.  The pedigree tells us what the horses are supposed to be.  Next month, we will add what they appear to be based on their past performances.  Our bankroll will tell us what they are as racehorses, and that will be our topic in May.

The time you spend evaluating racing pedigrees is another tool that will help you have the time of your life at the races.

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

Whether you’re an AQHA member or not, you have access to all kinds of horse records – including pedigrees – at AQHA’s Next Generation Records. Check out the selection today! 

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