If your horse-racing resolution comes with a memorable reminder, like truck tires, fires or lipstick, you’re less likely to forget about it.

This year, set realistic goals, and use a trick from Reid McLellan to help you remember them all year long.

By C. Reid McLellan

What are we going to do this year?

New Year’s resolutions are talked about a lot in December and early January each year. It seems to me that people have gradually begun to disregard this time-honored tradition.

I remember a New Year’s youth party at my home church way back when I was a teenager. We roasted marshmallows and wieners and enjoyed a good time like teenagers will do. Around 11:30 p.m., we gathered around the fire for a devotional from our youth leader. He had us write down something we did the past year that we were not proud of – more than one would be OK, but no more than three.

We folded the paper and wrote NPO (“not proud of”) on the outside. We were the only ones who were going to see those NPO notes, so “be honest with yourself,” the leader advised. He then asked us to write on another piece of paper one main goal we would accomplish in the new year. At 11:55 p.m., we observed a quiet time, a time of silent prayer, reflection or even a brief nap for those who didn’t want to participate.

We were asked to think about what we put on our NPO page. What were the circumstances? What will you do differently next time? At 11:59 p.m., we put that NPO page in the campfire. As we watched the papers go up in smoke, we were told to let it go. At midnight, we shared Happy New Year greetings, somewhat subdued compared to most celebrations, but with smiles, tears and what appeared to be relief on some faces. We were told that “Auld Lang Syne” was about remembering old friends and good times, not NPO events.

Then, as we sang those familiar lyrics, we put our goal page into the fire.

“Giving up on my goals already?” I wondered.

No, I learned that whenever I saw smoke — from a trash fire, a chimney or even a grill — I was reminded of that one goal.

I still remember what I wrote on those slips of paper, yet I can’t remember what goals I set last year.

Yes, this is still a racing blog! The take-home message for 2012 is that each of us can make resolutions, not keep any of them and do it all over again in December. Or, we can reflect on our wagering or other actions we were not proud of in 2011, and resolve to do things differently in 2012.

I encourage you to write down one, two or no more than three things you were not proud of in 2011. Write down each NPO event and below it write a positive, declarative sentence that starts with “In 2012, I will …”

For example:

NPO: Changed wager because a friend gave me inside information about another horse.

STATEMENT: In 2012, I will follow my own handicapping to make wagering decisions. If I choose to use inside information, I will make that as an additional  wager.

After spending quiet time considering your NPO list, destroy it in a way meaningful to you. Most importantly, do not keep your NPO list! Turn it loose and let it go! Write down one major goal that is specific and attainable. “Make a profit every time I go to the race track” is too general. “Make an average profit of $100 per visit to the race track” is more specific and attainable. This will be our playing goal for this blog and, in addition to some training and horse talk, I will blog about wagering plans that can help us attain that goal in 2012. Do something creative so that you will have a daily reminder. You can do the fire and smoke reminder or something that works for you. Some life coaches have clients write down goals on sticky notes and stick them on their bathroom mirror. Some like to place notes on the fridge with a magnet. To be different, write your goal in lipstick. Then when you see a lipstick commercial, an ad in a magazine or pass a lipstick display at a store, you will be reminded of your goal.

Speaking of goals, R.D. Hubbard set — and achieved — countless business goals in the horse-racing industry. Get the FREE Hubbard: Success in Business report today, and learn the secrets to his success.

So, what did I write on my blog goal piece of paper for 2012?

“Submit one blog for each month in 2012.” How will I remember? I rolled over my piece of paper with my truck and put a big tire print on it. Keep track of how many months this blog appears to judge the success of this reminder!

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

When you go to a track for a day at the races, be thankful for the fact that you get to enjoy another day at the track.

Thankful for another opportunity to go to the horse races.

By C. Reid McLellan

“Thank you, Lord! Thank you, Lord!”

And thus another winning horseplayer expresses appreciation for a winning wager. Is that horseplayer actually saying a prayer of thanksgiving to God (or any other divine being), or just expressing excitement and happiness? Possibly 30 seconds prior to that utterance, that same player may have been prayerfully pleading, “PLEASE! One Time! PLEASE let me win JUST ONE TIME!!”

One reason horseplayers like to play the ponies is the excitement of unknown consequences – reward or loss?

Gratitude is not one of the “seven virtues,” but there are entire self-help programs based on encouraging an attitude of gratitude. We just celebrated a holiday based on Thanksgiving. Writing thank-you notes was a common courtesy taught in elementary school back in the day. My mother taught her six kids to write thank-you notes for all gifts we received. So, being thankful for a winning wager is a part of our culture.

Are you a fan of the races? Follow AQHA horse racing with AQHA’s Q-Racing Journal, a FREE digital publication. View the latest issue today!

But what does thanking God for our winning wagers say about his role when we lose? What if another player is also praying as the field turns for home, and that player is pulling for a different runner? Only one of us will win. How did God choose? What about an unbeliever? Or, what about a player who is praying for the jockey to “ride one home in front ONE TIME!”

Answers to these questions can be theological and will definitely be biased by personal opinion and belief. And, since I write this blog, this is my opinion.

When you go to a track for a day at the races, be thankful for the fact that you get to enjoy another day at the track – a beautiful day you can spend outside or sheltered from less-desirable elements. Appreciate that you will be able to observe magnificent animals demonstrating their innate ability to run. Be thankful for your mental ability and senses that help you decide which runners to bet and which bets to place. With this attitude of gratitude at the races, money you lose is investment in your well-being much as a round of golf would be for a duffer, and profit earned will be lagniappe.

Thank you, investors who put up money to build and operate facilities.

Thank you, horse trainers, veterinarians, grooms and others who take care of our racehorses each day.

Thank you, mutuel clerks and technicians who keep Screen-Activated Machines working.

Thank you, concession workers and maintenance crews.

Yes! Thank you, Lord, for all of it!

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

2007 Galbreath Award winner R. D. Hubbard discusses his successes in the horse industry and beyond.

R.D. Hubbard has contributed much to the Quarter Horse racing world, and now you can learn about his success. His career as an entrepreneur, both within the equine industry and in other industries, has been remarkable for its achievements.

During the 2008 Bank of America Challenge Championships in Lafayette, Louisiana, Rich Wilcke, director of University of Louisiana’s Equine Industry Program, spoke with Dee Hubbard about his perspectives on entrepreneurship and his own career.

The Hubbard: Success in Business, Horses and Horse Racing report summarizes the conversation between Rich and Dee.

Dee attributes much of his success to three main factors: the people in his life, his willingness to take risks and incentive.

No matter what business you are in, you have to deal, and get along, with people – as customers, as suppliers, as competitors, as investors, as partners or as employees, Dee said. “I learned the value of surrounding myself with the best people, many of whom knew how to deal with crucial things that I didn’t know very much about.”

When Dee talks about taking risks, he doesn’t necessarily mean gambling. To him, there is a big difference between a gambler and a risk-taker. In business, you get the facts, weigh the options, and take the risk in the belief that the odds are in your favor. A gambler tends to shoot it all in hopes of winning.

The final key to his success was his incentive. When Dee first started working in the business world, he was married and had a family. He had the incentive to become a hard-working employee, and that landed him the job of managing a small business. The owner of that business became Dee’s mentor and taught him about the business.

It was through his mentors and a little luck that Dee was able to become the entrepreneur he is today.

You can read about his experiences by downloading the FREE Hubbard: Success in Business, Horses and Horse Racing report. You’ll learn more about Dee’s history, role in the development of Safelite and AFG Industries, real estate and horses.

Some of the famous horses Dee has owned or co-owned include: Straw Flight, Moolah Bar and Diamond Charge.

In 1961, Straw Flights total earnings were $46,202. That would be more than $333,000 today. Similarly, Moolah Bar and Diamond Charge were also stakes winners and money makers.

Learn more about Dee’s success by downloading our FREE Hubbard: Success in Business, Horses and Horse Racing report.

One exotic bettor used paper analysis to determine the best daily double strategies and learned when to wheel or part wheel at the racetrack.

Download Reid McLellan's evaluation of different betting strategies at two major horse races.

By C. Reid McLellan

What is your favorite “play?”

Tom liked the “all” button on the Screen-Activated Machine (like a self-serve kiosk), and he would wheel the favorite (or at least his top pick) in the first leg of a daily double with all of the horses in the second leg. He then would do a back wheel of all the horses in the first leg with his top pick in the second leg. With an average of 10 horses in each race, Tom was betting $36 on each pair of races in which daily double betting was offered.

When he started playing the game, most tracks offered daily double wagering on the first two races. Some offered a late double on the final two races of a race card. Now many tracks offer daily double wagering on every pair of races, or nine daily doubles on a 10-race card.

As Tom continued to wheel every daily double, he was hurting his wagering bankroll’s bottom line. An astute horse player, Tom had a strike rate of 37 percent (meaning his top pick was correct nearly four of 10 times).

Once we sat down and put the numbers on paper, Tom changed his wagering strategy and improved his already-impressive record of making a net profit from his horse playing.

Tom never paid much attention to the daily double  probables until after he had made his wagers. He knew which horses would make him a profit (the daily double would pay more than the $36 he wagered), and, even though he bragged about hitting the double three out of four times, he did not take that fact into account when he made his wagers.

To make the math easier for our discussion, we’ll use 80 percent as his success rate, something very few casual fans can expect to accomplish.

While Tom used $36 as his break-even number, he was not taking into account his non-winning rate. Even with the heady 80-percent strike rate, Tom needed nearly $45 to break even on his daily double play. To enjoy a 20 percent profit, he would need payoffs near $55. When we put the numbers down on paper, Tom changed his betting strategy.

Order AQHA’s Winner’s Guide to Wagering at the Racetrack and learn insightful information about speed indexes, types of races, how to look at past performances and much more. Perfect for beginners and experts alike!

To see how the theory works, let’s look at the daily double payoff at Ruidoso Downs on All American Weekend, at Los Alamitos the weekend of September 9-11 and at Remington Park September 28-October 1. Download the chart to follow along.

If Tom successfully hit the double 80 percent of the time, he could make a profit. Except for AA weekend, the other two weekends were picked at random. All three tracks have the traditional daily double and a late double on the final two races. The table shows the number of horses in each leg of the double, win payoff for each leg and the corresponding daily double payoff.  DD stands for the early double and LD the late double each day. DD net is the daily double payoff minus the total cost of betting a $2 wheel and backwheel in each leg. The final two columns show what the return would have been if the same amount of money as the cost of the wheels had been bet on the respective winning horse to win.

As I told Tom, a wheel is a win bet on that horse. Note that at Ruidoso and Los Alamitos, only five times out of 22 did the net profit from the daily double pay more than a straight win bet. And, in only two of those five times was the difference more than $25. On only one daily double (early double on September 5) was the payoff better than a win bet on either of the two winning horses.

An interesting late daily double occurred on September 29 at Remington Park. The winner of the ninth race paid $120.40 to win. An even-money favorite won the first leg. With 12 runners in the first leg and 13 in the second, I expected that double to pay $480 or $500, and it only returned $275. The other exotic payoffs were in line with the odds, but this lower double suggested that the ninth race winner was being played in the double and not in the straight pool, or that a number of people were wheeling the heavy favorite. Playing the late double on September 29 would have made us a profit (over a straight win bet) if we had only played the front wheel. Note that if you had picked that 60-1 runner and wheeled that horse in the double (a $24 bet in this case), you would have left more than $1,200 on the table (regardless of whether you played that horse in the straight pools or not).

Of course, this is an after-the-fact discussion, but you can do your own paper analysis by selecting a horse in each leg and placing a paper wager. When Tom and I did this on paper, we came up with some tenents to follow to give Tom a better profit potential.

Seven Daily-Double Tenents:

1. Only play daily double when there is a minimum of 20 runners in the two races.
2. Daily double is playable when you have confidence in your top pick in one of the legs.
3. If your top pick is a heavy favorite, part-wheel your top pick with the three longest odds horses in the other leg.
4. If your top pick is a 10-1 or more longshot, part-wheel your selection with three top picks in the other leg.
5. Bet the remainder of the cost of a full wheel on your top pick to win.
6. Don’t chase the double. If you don’t play a double and your selections hit for a big payoff, don’t just automatically bet the next double and the one after that, etc.
7. Keep track of your daily double wagers separately from your other wagers.

Our discussion shows what would happen if you picked the right horse in at least one of the legs of the daily doubles in our chart. Obviously, very few of us will ever pick one of the winners in each of 17 daily doubles. So, discipline, patience and money management are all tools we can use to improve our bottom line and have an exotic good time.

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

Look at your profit or loss on each bet, rather than at the end of the day, and you might find an improvement in your handicapping.

By C. Reid McLellan

Keep track of your individual wagers, not just your overall bankroll, to see an improvement in your handicapping.

Remember Joe? Like many horseplayers, Joe only considered profit or loss at the end of the day as a measure of his handicapping. Once he began to look at profit or loss on each play, instead of the end of the day, he became a more productive player and had money left over in his vacation bankroll, as we call it, at the end of the year, and actually took a long weekend vacation one Labor Day and went to Ruidoso Downs for the All American Futurity.

Joe liked to play the top three choices in each of the first two races in daily double part wheels.  Since Joe played three horses in each race, his total investment was $18.00. Over the course of a long meeting, meaning over 80 days, Joe’s strike rate was an average of four daily doubles a week and he was losing money on his daily double bets.

Joe was perplexed when I wrote that out for him on a napkin. Joe did not keep track of individual wagers – he only kept track of his overall bankroll. He started each racing season with a $2,000 bankroll, managed to buy himself lunch in the Silks clubhouse restaurant and occasionally take his buds out for steak and all the trimmings after a really good day.

With AQHA’s “Winners Guide to Wagering at the Racetrack” DVD, you’ll learn all about American Quarter Horse racing and how to wager. Order your copy today!

By the final weekend of that race meeting, Joe’s wagering bankroll was either gone on down to less than $200. And, if the latter was the case, he generally bet it all on the final day looking for a big payoff to get even.

Joe figured, “I’d spend that much on an exotic vacation and have nothing but a bunch of pictures to show for it.”  Knowing Joe, he probably would not be very many of those to show either.

Once Joe looked at some figures, he changed the way he played the double and even the way he played some of his other exotic bets. Playing the early and late doubles (Joe’s home track only offered daily double wagering on first two and final two races) meant that Joe was investing $36.00 in his system each day. Considering a five-day race week, Joe made 10 daily double bets at a total investment of $180.00. He averaged hitting four of those 10 wagers, so he needed payoffs of at least $45.00 just to break even.

Joe realized that when one of the top two choices in each daily double race won, the payoff rarely, if ever, netted him his $45.00. Joe saw that he made money when the longest shot of the three won one of the two races. So Joe decided to only part wheel the highest priced of the top three selections with the other three in each race. He also realized that by doing a bit of handicapping on the second leg, he could make an informed decision regarding which of the final race horses might be the biggest price.

Joe went from losing $400-500 on his daily double wagers to breaking even and even making a profit on that wager over the course of a 120-day meeting.

AQHA’s “Winners Guide to Wagering at the Racetrack” DVD is an excellent tool for beginning handicappers and experts alike.

Today, many tracks offer daily double wagering on each pair of races. Indiscriminate part wheeling program selections can be a quick way to lose money.  Some tracks have in-house handicappers that make selections and broadcast them over the in house feed. Account wagering television enables us to wager from home and they have personalities that make selections. If you don’t want to make your own selections, find a personality that you like and use his or her selections to help you make your choices.

One other element that Joe added to his wagering style was the word “pass.”  Watching daily double payoffs, Joe realized that when a race has less than six horses, it’s rare that the daily double will pay over $45.00 unless a big longshot won the other race. Joe began passing a lot of late doubles and added that $12 to his exacta play.

Manage your exotic wagers at the race track.

By C. Reid McLellan

Exotic bets offer players an opportunity for large payoffs with minimal investment. Journal photo.

Any wager requiring a player to correctly select the finish position of more than one horse is considered an exotic bet. From the daily double, our original exotic bet, racing’s exotic menu now includes wagers in which a player must pick the winners of three, four, five or six races in a row. In addition to picking a horse that finishes first, also known as a win bet; at least second, a place bet; or at least third, a show bet; we now have races where we can bet that we will correctly select the order of finish of two, three, four or five horses in the same race.

Remember, regardless of which exotic you choose, in order to be successful you must select the horse that wins the race in question. While the win bet is the most consistent profit-producing bet at a racetrack, exotic bets offer players an opportunity for large payoffs with minimal investment.

When you go to a racetrack, will you be thinking, “If I wager $100 and walk out with $120, I will have made a 20 percent return on my investment in one day?” Will you even think that you had a successful day? For most casual to regular players, the answer to that question is most likely, “No!” One allure of gambling is a possibly of turning $1 into $100, or even $1 million. That is one of the main reasons people pull handles on slot machines and buy lottery tickets. At the Kentucky Derby, a player picking the right four numbers in the correct order on a $1 superfecta ticket turned that $1 investment into $24,063. Obviously, that was not easy to do. If it had been easy, that payoff would have been closer to $24 than $24,000.

AQHA’s “Winner’s Guide to Wagering at the Racetrack” is an excellent tool for beginners and experts alike. Order your copy  today and learn how to properly handicap horse racing!

When you go to the track, remember to divide your bankroll into a straight bet amount and an exotic bet amount. Exacta boxes are a common exotic bet, but there are several other exotic plays out there. In addition to boxes, you can use wheels, part wheels and varying amount wagers.

To help you with your wagering, here are a few definitions:

• When we wheel an exotic bet we take a key horse and it play in one position of a bet, then use all available horses in subsequent positions. A daily double wheel would be “$2 daily double 2 with all” or “$2 daily double all with 4.”  In the first case, if our key horse in the first leg wins, then we are guaranteed that we will have a winning ticket once the second leg is finished.  It does not, however, guarantee that we will have made a profit from our wager. Our second example is called a back wheel.  In a back wheel, we will be alive after the first leg regardless of which horse wins that race.  Our key horse must win the second leg in order for us to share in the daily double winnings.
• A part wheel is using a key horse in one position with a partial number of horses for subsequent positions.  In the daily double, this would be “$2 daily double part wheel 4 with 1,3,5,7,9.”  This ticket would cost $10. This means that if the 4 horse wins the first leg and if any one of our five wheel horses wins the second leg, we will have a winning ticket.

Today’s mutual machines enable players to do several wheels or part wheels at the same time.

Here are a few examples:

• $2 daily double 2,4 with all — each wheel would cost $24 if the second leg has a 12-horse field, so the total cost of the wager would be $48.
• $2 daily double 1,2,3 with 1,2,3 — a part wheel is using some, but not all, of the horses in one or both legs of our play.  With this example, three part wheels are used (1 with 1,2,3; 2 with 1,2,3 and 3 with 1,2,3), each costing $6, so the total cost of that wager is $18.

Now that we are speaking the same language, let’s go have some fun!

Putting It to Practice

When I first started going to the races, I had a couple of buddies, Joe and Tom, who considered making it to Louisiana Downs in time for the first race so they could play the daily double, a clear matter of urgency – in the late 1970s Louisiana Downs only offered daily double wagering on races 1 and 2.

Joe played a part wheel strategy. He took the top three program selections in the first race and played a daily double part wheel to the top three selections in the second race.  Joe generally played a $2 minimum wager, so his ticket cost $18.  Occasionally he would hit the double, and his winnings would be $15 to $50.

I followed Joe’s plan for an entire Louisiana Downs meeting, checking the results in the newspaper each morning.  If Joe had gone to the races 100 days that year (of a 120-day meeting), he would’ve lost more than $600 on just his daily double wagering.  At one point, about a third of the way through the year, Joe was actually showing a profit of just more than $200.

Wagering on the top three program selections over a long period of time is generally a losing proposition. The top three program selections are going to get most of the wagering from the public, and therefore, Joe was unlikely to hit any payoffs large enough to account for the days he lost money.

Order AQHA’s Winner’s Guide to Wagering at the Racetrack and learn insightful information about speed indexes, types of races, how to look at past performances and much more. Perfect for beginners and experts alike!

Tom did his own handicapping and would wheel his top pick in the first race over all of the horses in the second race and then do a back wheel of all the horses in the first race with his top pick in the second race. Tom usually had a bankroll of $500 to $1,000, and he was betting $48 of it on the daily double.

Tom was a reasonably good handicapper, and he would hit the daily double at least once a week.  Since he was playing a $2 bet, his winnings ranged from $20 to $300.  Once, when his top pick was a 9-to-1 choice in the second race and a 20-to-1 long shot won the first race, he collected more than $1,200 for his daily double ticket. Once again, about mid-season, this daily double play showed a profit of more than $800.  But by the end of the 120-day meeting, his daily double play had lost him more than $2,000.

Neither friend was very happy with me when we sat down one Saturday morning with pencil and paper and they learned how much they were losing on their daily double bets. Joe pointed out that he cashed daily double tickets about twice a week. He said he would prefer to let the professional handicappers do the selecting and he would do the betting. He wanted to know if there was a way that he might be able to make money using the top three selections.

Tom kept a decent daily log of his wagers. He remembered his big $1,200 daily double hit (he still brags about it 30 years later), and he was a good enough handicapper that he actually showed a modest profit from his overall wagering activities from year to year. He did not, however, separate his wagers into win bets, daily double bets and other exotic bets – he just wrote down total wagered and total won or lost at the end of the day. Tom made some changes in the way he played his daily double and improved his bottom line profit potential.

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

Continue learning about handicapping at Quarter Horse races and learn how to make a wagering plan.

By C. Reid McLellan

January always has been a “bright” month on my calendar.  Just like the start of a new race meeting, changing to a “new” year enables us to have a feeling of a “fresh start.”

One element over which we have control in our wagering plans is the ability to decide we are going to start over.

If you have been on a losing streak, or just haven’t been playing for a while because of family, business or other (Holiday?) reasons, you can decide that the beginning of the Remington Park Quarter Horse meeting will be a do over.  (Now that my good friend and Groom Elite board member Dan Fick is Racing Secretary at Remington Park we could use the golf term “mulligan.”)

If you are new to this blog, go back and read some of the guidelines for money management and mental approaches we discussed.  Now let’s consider a wagering action plan in which we will consider exactas along with our straight wagers.

Using our $100 bankroll let’s allocate $60 to exacta plays and $40 to our straight wagers. To keep is simple we will consider a $1 exacta box of our top three selections and a $4 straight bet in each race. Like we did with our straight wagers we are going to have a goal for the day.  In this case we’ll stretch our goal from doubling our money (1-1) to tripling our bankroll (2-1).

In other words, we’re going in with $100 with a goal to walk out with $300.  Using the average handicappers success rate we are going to expect to hit 20 percent of our exacta wagers and 30 percent of our selections will win (straight bets).

With our 60-40 distribution of funds we will allocate $120 of our $200 profit to our exacta play and the other $80 to our straight bets.  If we figure we will hit 2 of our exactas then each exacta must return $90 for our $1 investment.

That means $2 exacta payoff amount must be $180.  In a subsequent article, we can discuss how to include a favorite in our exacta play, but for this exercise we are going to box three horses.  To give ourselves a chance for that $90 payoff without stressing over watching the probable board we will only bet exacta boxes with a field size of at least 8 and include in our 3-horse box horses whose odds total 15-1.  In other words, if our top pick is 3-1 and our second choice is 4-1, our third choice needs to be 8-1.  Remember, if we pass a race we can then do a $2 exacta box in the next race and our “winner” only has to pay $30 for a $1 exacta.

At the same time we are going to wager $4 to win on the horse of our top three selections that is closest to 8-1.  If we win three of those we get back close to the profit we need to make our goal.  Remember, if we pass a race, we can bet $8 to win on a horse that is 4-1 and accomplish the same goal.

For this blog I handicapped the a Tuesday race card at Louisiana Downs.  I did not know the results prior to my handicapping this card and did not change any play after I learned the results.  (In handicapping circles what I am about to do is called “red-boarding,” bragging about big scores after the race is official, or whining about “near misses.”  My intent here was to show this money action plan in principle and did not know the results until after my handicapping.  Hereafter are the hits and misses!)

Louisiana Downs – Tuesday January 25, 2011

Simplified betting rules: Bankroll – $100 (Stop Loss $100).
Bankroll Distribution: $60 to be bet in exacta boxes. Today all exacta boxes will be $1 units with three horses (total of $6.00); $40 to straight bets ($4.00 per race).
Goal: Net profit of $200.

Action Plan: Bet exacta boxes only in races with at least 8 runners and where odds on any 3 of top 4 picks total 15 or more.  Will not include runners going off at less than 2-1.

Bet $4 win bets on the one of my top three picks that is closest to 8-1 (or $2 win on each of any two top picks 8-1 or more.)

Adding our additional profit of $120.30 to the $233.50 profit we have a total profit of $353.80.  Our goal was $200, so you can now consider increasing the daily “stop loss” by adding $100 for a $200 daily bankroll.  $120 allocated to exacta play means we can bet $2 three horse boxes or play a 4-horse box for $1.  We would only play a 4-horse box if  field size at least 10, two horses are at least 10-1 and no horse in box is less than 9-2.  We would also have $80 in our straight pool so we can bet $8.00 WIN bets or multiples thereof.  But that is another day.  Remember, we can lose ALL of our bankroll every day if our handicapping is not “in tune”.  But if we develop an “action plan” and stick to it, we increase the likelihood that we will have more profit making days.  For now we’re going to use our profit and take our “significant other” out for a great dinner and enjoy the “Time of our Life”.

(Dr. McLellan offers this example for those that choose to use their discretionary income to wager on horse races.  There are no guarantees that these principles will work for everyone.  It is intended as a guide to help those that want to play to understand the game.  If you feel you have a problem with gambling, call AQHA for contact information of professionals that can help you with your problem.)

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

Having a good wagering plan can make a difference during the holiday season.

By C. Reid McLellan

Christmas time brings money management into sharp focus in many aspects of our lives. We shop for presents for loved ones and acquaintances. Some find such shopping stressful. They worry about what to get each person on their list for different reasons:

• Gift receiver will think the gift is cheap.
• Giver does not have enough money to buy a gift they know a loved one really wants.
• Receiver already “has everything.”
• Giver can’t afford to take off work and thus does not have time to shop for that extra-special gift.

Notice that each of those reasons has something to do with money. We talk about “it’s the thought that counts.” Many mature receivers appreciate any gift they receive, but their appreciation doesn’t alleviate stress for many people.

This is also the time of year when financial institutions and professional money advisors include notes in Christmas cards and e-mails along the lines of: “Now is the time to make decisions that can affect the amount of income taxes you pay for this year.” Some people simply wonder if they will have enough to pay a large heat bill they know is coming due to unprecedented cold weather in their region.

Most of those reading this can probably relate to one or more of these money management stressors. A one-word antidote to such stress is “plan.” We are told from the time we are in elementary school about planning. A famous sign has the words “Plan Ahead” on it with the “A” and “D” crowded onto the sign, indicating a failure to do exactly what the sign suggested. If we would just put $50 into a Christmas club account each month starting in January, we would have $600 with which to buy Christmas gifts – enough to ensure stress-free shopping for many parents or grandparents. We declare our good intentions, but we don’t follow through. Some of that is human nature – instant gratification (advertisements tell us we deserve to have what we want right now!); laziness that leads to procrastination (we’ll do it next week); and sometimes an emergency interferes with best-laid plans.

Last month, we discussed a money management plan for wagering. A money management plan can help reduce the stresses of wagering. And stress-free wagering can make more profit that wagering under duress.  Ever heard the phrase, scared money is afraid to win?

Money management cannot make up for bad handicapping, but it can help you have funds available so that when your selection wins, you have funds left with which you can wager, and you wager enough on that horse that you are able to achieve your wagering goal. One of the saddest laments I hear at a racetrack is, “I had that 20-1 shot that won picked in my top three, but only used him in an exacta (or trifecta, etc.), and the other horses did not cooperate.”  (That of course is a paraphrase. I’m sure you can insert your own words to complete that sad mantra.) Another is, “I played that 20-1 shot second in exacta with favorite, but didn’t reverse it.”

Folks, if you like a 20-1 longshot, and that horse finishes in top three, you should cash some kind of ticket. How do we do that? Money management can help. Let’s use our $100 a month allotment from last month and look at one daily wagering action plan.

We’ll divide our $100 into two categories – straight wagers and exotic wagers – then decide on a percentage for each category. For this example, we will establish a goal of  $100 profit for each $100 wagered. With that in mind, we will look at a 100 percent straight bet wagering plan.

If you are an “average” handicapper you will pick one winner out of every three selections.  (If you always throw out the favorite and “try to beat it” you will pick fewer than one in three, since favorites tend to win about 30 to 33 percent of the time.)  If I decide I want to bet all 10 races, I could wager $10 on each race. With this action plan, I will use the following guidelines to decide how to invest that $10.  Once I have done my handicapping, I will watch the horses in the post parade if possible and make my final decision about my top three selections.

If my selection is 3-1 or less, I will bet my $10 to win. If selection is between 7-2 and 8-1, I will bet $5 win and $5 place. If my selection is over 8-1, I will bet $4 win and $6 show, or all $10 to show provided that the field size is eight or more and there is no prohibitive favorite in the race. If I have no idea as to which horse might win a race, I will pass. Remember, if you pass a race, you will have that $10 to wager in a subsequent race – so maybe you have two $15 win bets or a $20 win bet later on the card.

If I am picking the correct horse in one of three races and wish to double my money ($100 in straight bets and walk out with $200 total) my win bets need to be on horses that are 5-1 or more. Look at your top three selections and bet $10 to win on the runner that is closest to 5-1 in each race. Pass on races in which you are convinced that an 8-5 (or 3-5 or whatever low-odds heavy favorite) is going to win.  Or, bet half of your straight bet bankroll on that heavy favorite to win. (Remember, if you bet $50 to win on a 2-1 shot that wins, you will get back $150 and thus walk out with $200.)  Those passed races can help you have that $50 available for a big win bet.

Next time: For New Year’s, we will divide our bankroll into $36 straight bets and $64 exotic bets and plan for larger take-home pay in 2011. When it comes to wagering, few people realize a money management plan can help them have the “time of their life.”

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

Having a money management plan and a winning attitude can make all the difference.

A business plan is an important document that helps owners get financing for a new (or ongoing) business. A business plan may be long and drawn out or short and to the point. If it is a personal business plan and no shareholders are involved, then the simpler the better.

Last month, we talked about reviewing our history and establishing a wagering log and budget to help us develop a winning attitude. This month, we will talk about money management plans that might help you have the time of your life. 

Budget

Let’s start with a quick review of last month’s budget discussion. How much money will be allocated to the wagering budget? Depending on your level of action, this can be yearly, monthly, weekly or daily.

A budget, with an allocation to “wagering” (a sub-category of “Entertainment”) includes the “discretionary funds” you have available to wager each month (or your budgetary period). Your money management plan will include a “stop-loss” statement. This states that when you have lost your “stop-loss” amount, you will wait until the next budgetary period. 

Action Plan

How much you will wager each day (or month) is the beginning of your money management plan. Let’s look at a simple money management plan for a horse player who goes to the track one day a month. Don’t worry about understanding the details, but use this example to start your thinking about allocating your resources. 

After doing a history analysis and a family budget, Horse Player 1 will allocate $100 a month to wagering, with a stop loss of $100 in any one month. HP1 will take 50 percent of net winnings out at the end of any month in which there is a profit. The other half of the winnings will be added to the monthly allocation.

Note that in a month when there is a profit, no new deposit needs to be made. Half of the net profit is added to the allocation already in the account. For example, with $100 start-up, HP1 made a profit of $150 on Month 1, so the account now has $250. Withdrawing $75 (half of the profits) leaves $175 with which to wager in Month 2. With a $100 “stop-loss,” HP1 will stop when losses total $100 in any one month.

This may sound complicated, but notice that over the course of this year HP1 had $1,600 available to wager but only had $425 at risk.  In this scenario, HP1 cannot lose more than $1,200 in one year.  Since this $1,200 was allocated to the “entertainment” budget, the family can take a special vacation trip (maybe to the MBNA Challenge Championships in New Orleans, etc.) or the allocation for the following year can be upped to $200 per month if the same budget is used.

Example:  Allocation in bold is money deposited to wagering account
  Net returns in bold represent net profit for that month. 

A next step in a money management plan is to decide how to distribute the available allocation among different bets. Next time, we’ll discuss a daily wagering action plan to help us have the time of our lives.

Use a few basic principles about writing a business plan to prepare your race wagering plan.

Business plans may be long and drawn out or short and to the point. If it is a personal business plan and no shareholders are involved, then the simpler the better.

If we use a few basic principles about writing a business plan to prepare our “wagering plan,” we can have a disciplined approach to wagering that might help us have the time of our lives.

History

Most business plans start off with a history of the business or an explanation of what motivated the founder to start this business.

What is your wagering history? You can start at the first time you went to a track or OTB and placed a wager. That may give you some insight as to your interest in this game. Particularly, write down the first time you felt the “thrill of victory” that “got you hooked.” Also, write down a memorable “agony of defeat” episode.

After you reminisce, focus on the past one to three years and answer these questions: How often did you wager? Where did you wager? What wagers (win, place, show; exacta, etc.) did you make? What size wagers were “normal” for you? What was your best wagering day and how was it facilitated? How much money did you win or lose each year?

Most casual players won’t know how much they won or lost, and accuracy is not as important as understanding your wagering history. If you are just starting out, write down what got you interested in this aspect of the sport and move on to the next section.

Wagering Log

You don’t have to do a detailed history, just general observations of your routine. This wagering log is similar to an “eating program” log. When we had students do a similar “eating plan history” for two weeks and then do an eating log for the next two weeks, some were surprised at how differently they ate than they thought they ate.

This exercise of writing down your wagering history will help you see where you may have some “junk wagers” as well as some “meaty” ones.

Write down your wagers for the preceding two weeks. If you wager at home you can probably get the log from your ADW account. If your local racetrack offers a wagering card you can load with money, consider that option for betting at that racetrack, as you will be able to get a printout of your wagers.

After writing down your most recent two weeks (or four to five trips to the track) activity, keep track of the next two weeks of action.

Budget

How much money will be allocated to the wagering budget? Depending on your level of action, this can be yearly, monthly, weekly or daily. If you do not have a personal and/or family budget, this might be a good time to do at least a category budget.

Knowing that your family’s financial needs are covered, and that your wagering losses will not affect the money necessary for covering those needs enables you to wager “risk-free.” You have probably heard an expression that goes something like, “scared money never wins.”

Suppose you really like a horse that is 12-1 on the board, and you have $100 in your pocket with which you intended to pay your $95 electric bill. You really, really like this 12-1 horse. Do you bet $5 to win? Or, do you take a chance and bet $20 to win, knowing that if the horse loses you will not have enough to pay the electric bill?

Maybe you have some more money at home or in a checking account somewhere? But what other bills is that money supposed to pay? Do you feel that knot in your stomach? Sweat on your brow? That is adrenalin, our “fight or flight” hormone produced when we are scared.

So, what happens? You decide to be good and not wager. You leave the track and go pay your electric bill. You look online that evening and see that the horse you picked won and paid $28.60 to win. Next comes cussing and a feeling of “I’m so stupid,” etc.

Next time you go to the track, you wager on any horse that you think might win (not that you really, really like) and lose. More cussing and self deprecating is sure to follow.  This is “loser mentality” and is a familiar feeling for those playing with “scared money.”

A budget, with an allocation to “wagering” (might be a subcategory of “Entertainment”) allows a player to bet with confidence. Your plan will include a “stop-loss” statement. That simply states that if you lose all your allotment for a budget period (day, week, month, etc.), you will wait until the next allotment is deposited, i.e. pay day, before wagering again.

Does this mean you will simply ignore racing in the interim? Not at all! If you play golf and you don’t have money for green fees or new golf balls, you can still go to a park or pasture and “hit some balls,” practice your short game, putting or watch some golf instruction on TV.

In racing, we can get past performance information online. Some sites offer free races of the day and you can download past performances for those races for free. Some ADW accounts offer free past performances if a wager ($2 to show is enough) is placed on that track for the day. Get PP’s, handicap the races and make wagers “on paper.” As your paper bankroll grows, you make wagers with more confidence, and you start to have a “winner’s attitude.”

Action Plan

How much will you wager each day? This does not have to be a fixed amount but can be broken down into categories such as “Light Day, Minor Day, Major Day” (choose the terminology you like). We’ll talk about a money management plan to allot this money next month. In the meantime, write down your history and set aside some time to make a budget for the Time of Your Life.

Watch your race program for horses that have gone back to the class in which they were most successful.

Use pre-race time to find the next winner.

By C. Reid McLellan

August means that class is back in session.

School-age kids and their parents are busy with back-to-school shopping for all the right materials on their lists.  Most students are moving up a grade level, and many graduated in May and will be moving up to middle school, junior high, high school or college.

Remember those days?  Worry, anxiety and fear are three emotions experienced by students as they approach a new school year and the requirements of a higher class.  A high-school valedictorian moving on to college may wonder if he or she will be able to continue making the grade. Once new students attend some classes, pass some tests and learn that they do have the knowledge and ability to do college-level work, they approach new classes with confident excitement and an expectation that they will do well. As adults, we look back on our school years and realize that we enjoyed some of the best times of our lives.

Although we know that horses are not humans, we can apply some of these same concepts to racing. The class structure in horse racing describes levels of competition, and as horses graduate from one level to a higher level, they face more difficult company. Some superstar high school athletes moving up to college don’t stand out anymore because there are others with the same or better skill sets.  Likewise, some horses appear to have superstar capability at the beginning of their career, only to become ordinary as they move up in class.

In American horse racing, we have a two-pathway class structure, claiming or allowance. Claiming races are races in which all runners competing are for sale, and allowance races are races in which horses competing are not for sale (at least for that race). Within each category, there are conditioned races, which limit the competition based on numbers of wins (non-winners of two in their lifetime – N2L, etc.) and open races (no restrictions other than maybe sex of runners).  Within each category, the dollar value of the race gives us some idea as to the level of competition.

For example, competition in a N2L allowance race with a purse of $15,000 is usually not as rigorous as an N2L allowance with a $30,000 purse.  Same holds true for the open company races.

So with that brief background on class, let’s do our homework. In a program, the past performance lines of each runner tell us the class in which that runner has been racing and information about the horses against whom our runner has been competing.

The description of the race gives us the class of the race, and that is usually found about four columns from the left margin and just before the running lines that we looked at last month.  Mark every horse in today’s race that is moving down in class, especially if it was within two lengths of the winner in a higher class race.  Especially watch for 2-year-olds dropping from futurity trial company back to maiden company.  Even if that 2-year-old finished in the back half of the pack in its trial races, it was most likely facing tougher company.  And, when you see that your selection was in the same trial as the futurity winner, you have an even stronger reason to consider a wager.

Learn more ways to be a winner at the racetrack. Download AQHA’s FREE Speed Ratings report today!

How do you know what other horses your selection may have raced against?  To the right (just before the comments) is the “company line,” the names of runners that finished in the top-three spots in each race. When a name appears in italics, it means that horse came back to win its next start.  If in its most recent three starts, your runner has raced against four horses that won their subsequent starts, take a good look at your horse in the post parade and consider a win bet if the odds are 9-2 or more.

A name in bold type lets you know that horse is in this same race today. That can be especially helpful in identifying a horse that may have been successful at today’s class level previously and is not returning to its most competitive level.

How many times have you said, “I’d like to go back through high school (or college) knowing what I know now.”  While we can’t do that, racehorses can go back to the class in which they were the most successful and give us another chance to have the time of our lives.

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.

Next time you’re at the races, look for horses that had problems leaving the starting gate caused by other horses.

Pay close attention to horses' past behavior out of the starting gate, and you might spot the next winner.

By C. Reid McLellan

Fourth of July is a great time to enjoy a lot of what this independent country has to offer. Some enjoyed outdoor cookouts, others went to baseball games, and many enjoyed watching impressive fireworks shows at their local racetrack. For many, Fourth of July events such as these qualify as great times. Each month, we have been looking at ways in which we can improve our enjoyment of racing. Last month, we discussed how we can improve our chances if we read between the lines. This month, we are going to evaluate additional information in the program lines that might be overlooked by the casual race goer, thereby improving our chances of cashing more winning tickets.

The Start

In all racing, the start is important, but when 10 American Quarter Horses line up to dash 350 yards (plus or minus), the start is crucial. Some beginning horse players say they don’t like Quarter Horse racing because the horse they pick to win may get wiped out at the start and have no chance.  By reading between the lines, you can get some information that might help you figure out if your favorite is going to get a clean break. Look to the far right of each past performance line and take note of the comment. You might note that your horse had difficulty at the start of a race in which it did not run well. If that horse gets a clean break tonight, you could be in for a nice payday. Comments like “brushed,” “bothered,” “bumped,” and “wiped out” indicate increasing amounts of interference. “Broke in” and “broke out” give you more information that can be helpful.

If your selection was bumped in its most recent start and still finished close up (within a length) and in the top 5, and tonight the horse to its inside tends to “break in” and the horse to its outside tends to “break out,” your runner has a chance of getting a clean getaway. If it is running in a similar (or lower) class race than its previous start, then consider it for a nice WIN bet.

First Call

In Quarter Horse past performances, the first seven items describe each race, including the winning horse’s time, the time of the horse you are evaluating and the name (or description) of the race.  The next section has four or five numbers that describe how this horse ran in each race. (There are four numbers when the distance is less than 350 yards and five numbers for 350 yards and over.)

Consider these numbers and comments from the most recent race (May 31) for No. 1 Its A Jazzin Time in the first race at Canterbury Park on July 3.

5   9        5   1¼     5   1¼     7   5        ######    Bumped St; no threat

The first number is the gate from which the horse started (5) and the second number is how the horse started from the gate (9th of 10). Obviously, in Quarter Horse racing, look for runners that have more 1s, 2s and 3s in that column.

The third number shows the position (5th) and distance behind the leader (1¼ lengths) after the field had gone 100 yards. The fourth number shows the same information when the field was 110 yards from the finish line. The final number is the finish position and lengths behind the winner at the wire.  On the right, we see the comment, “bumped start.”  Its A Jazzin Time broke poorly (9th) after being “bumped” at start, stayed close (1¼ lengths back) before fading at finish (beaten 5 lengths).

A comment for No. 2 in the first race on Saturday evening indicated that No. 2 might “break out,” meaning that he would break toward No. 3. That suggested that No. 1 might get a clean break in Saturday’s race. Looking further, I noticed that No. 1 had run the fastest speed index of this field in his first start on May 16 and could give the odds-on favorite (No. 3) a run for the money. No. 1 did get away clean but once again “faded” late to be beaten only a length by the speedy favorite and was two lengths in front of the rest of the field. A $2 exacta returned $11.60 and was a nice return for two horses that appeared much the best, provided they got a good break.

Next month, we will read between the lines to evaluate class and see if our selection has been keeping good company. Until then, go to the races and look in the past performances for an American Quarter Horse that had problems leaving the gate caused by other horses. Then check comments on the horses in the gates next to your selection. If it looks like your runner might get a clean break tonight, include that runner in your wager and have the time of your life!

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.