Take the time to evaluate each horse race with a performance analysis.

By C. Reid McLellan

One-minute, two-minute, three-minute, four!

We’ve been discussing taking time to handicap. We started looking at the top-three trainers, jockeys and owners as good, quick handicapping aids. We added pedigree last time, looking at information about sires and dam sires of our selections. That information told us what our selection(s) should be.

This month, we’re looking at performance indicators that can give us information as to what a racehorse appears to be. As with pedigrees, you can use a small amount of performance data or you can do a least squares analysis of 15 performance parameters to come up with your selections. Remember, one of the reasons you enjoy playing the races is because it is fun. Choose the level of handicapping with which you are comfortable and enjoy your day at the races.

Performance handicapping of Quarter Horses starts with the speed index. For those who only want one-number performance handicapping, it ends with the speed index. Speed indexes are numbers that relate a horse’s time to the average of the fastest time for a respective distance over the past three years. You can find the speed index in the Daily Racing Form, Brisnet Past Performances or your local track program that may have Trackmaster Quarter Horse past performances. In Brisnet past performances, the SI is labled SPD and is in black bold print. Daily Racing Form puts SI just after the odds. Trackmaster puts the speed indexes in a box. There is a plethora of other information on these pages. Remember, however, you are doing time-efficient handicapping. Find the speed index and don’t be overwhelmed by all that other information.

Speed indexes are calculated separately for each track and distance and are based on the fastest times for each distance over the past three years. Those three fastest times are averaged, and the result is the benchmark speed index of 100. For races of less than 300 yards, one point is deducted for each 0.20 of a second a horse is slower than the average. For 300 and 330 yards, 0.30 is deducted; for 350 yards, it’s 0.35 seconds; and for 400 yards and up, the time used is 0.40. You can learn more about these figures on AQHAracing.com.

If you have done your one-, two- and three-minute handicapping, you have identified three or four contenders. Now add the information from the speed indexes your contenders have earned at today’s distance. If they have not run at today’s distance, you can still use the index, but be careful of using high speed index numbers from shorter distances.

Even though 350 yards is only 20 yards farther, some Quarter Horses can win regularly at 300 or 330 and not hit the board at 350. The same is true with the jump from 350 to 400 and 440. So, when comparing speed indexes, use the same distance (and the same track, if possible). Don’t put too much confidence in higher speed indexes from different distances, but when those indexes are 10 or more points higher than the rest of the field, look at the connections and pedigree information.

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The 550-yard distance is a special distance that requires horses to have muscle stamina and cardiovascular fitness. Watch for horses turning back from 870 yards to 550 if there are not 550 specialists in the field. The stamina required for running 870 yards is a help for racing this long sprint. Horses that were successful at 440 are also worth a look. When evaluating performance for 870 yard races, consider post positions as well as the speed indexes. At 870 yards, it is not uncommon to see the inside three post positions win more than 50 percent of the races. A runner breaking from the rail that is in your top three from one-minute handicapping is a good win-bet consideration, especially if its odds are 5-1 or more.

Horses change over time, so don’t give a runner too much credit for superior speed indexes set 6 or 8 races back, unless those SIs were set at the current track and that runner has been racing elsewhere since. There is truth to the adage: horses for courses.

Start with simple performance handicapping. Compare speed indexes of your contenders in their most-recent three starts at today’s track and distance if possible. As you get more comfortable with those numbers, you can add additional elements to your performance handicapping.

Spending time evaluating a racehorse’s connections, pedigree and recent performance can help you have the time of your life at the races. Next month, we’ll spend some time developing a wagering plan.

As executive director of The Elite Program, C. Reid McLellan organizes and teaches Groom, Owner and Trainer Elite classes around the country. Find out about the next available class here!

As owner and agent of Purple Power Equine Services, Reid helps people buy and sell race and show prospects and provides guidance and assistance with training, breeding and other equine services.